Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Buried By Exceptional Bullshit

Bonds just received their daily dose of deflation, compliments of another fake news narrative attempting to explain away collapse in broad daylight. The Idiocracy's primary preoccupation...






Bearing in mind that the U.S. population has grown 60% since 1970





It gets worse...



"Newly built homes are more expensive than they've ever been before. They are also more expensive when compared to similar existing homes than they've ever been before. And that is why sales are suffering"




Inflation adjusted home prices with home builder, Lennar:




Bueller?











Bonus chart:

3rd wave down on Bitcoin, coming up...






Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Bullshit Artist In a China Shop

Forrest Chump is negotiating from a position of ignorance and arrogance...





It turns out that the best indicator of impending crash in U.S. markets is...

Canada:
















Rich Man's Panic 2017

Don't take my word for it...




The Dow's all time high was two weeks ago today:





"It is no secret that the economy is in decent shape. Monthly employment growth has averaged 184,000 this year, and the unemployment rate is down to 4.3 percent." 


Deja Vu




"Meanwhile, S&P 500 earnings growth for the second quarter is set to come in at 10.2 percent, according to Factset, while revenue growth looks to be above 5 percent."

The chart Wall Street never wants us to see - aggregate, non-engineered revenue across all S&P 500 companies. Calculated by taking revenue per share * S&P divisor. Here shown CPI adjusted:



Last chance to buy recession stocks.

Don't take my word for it:







"the most important factor is the direction of interest rates. Utilities stocks are particularly sensitive to rate shifts given their high yields relative to the rest of the market; he believes as interest rates will likely take a leg lower, utilities will likely fare well going forward."


It didn't turn out that way the last three times, but I'm sure it will be different this time:




Or not...



Backtest 50 day. Check.

Diminishing marginal returns from volatility compression:





There's only one way out of this...

PANIC










Potemkin Empire

Somehow despite collapse in broad daylight, the burden of truth still falls upon us skeptics of the impossible...



One by one every sector of the market has fallen, now held up solely by Chinese internet. Even defense stocks are rolling over despite the daily military expansion in every direction by Forrest Trump who ran on a platform of military pullback:


In the meantime, the Retail sector which comprises 70% of the economy has imploded from end to end due to "Amazon": shopping malls, apparel retailers, dollar stores, department stores, auto sales, grocers, appliances, jewellers, art work, cappuccinos, cheesecakes, sporting goods, hardware. 

And even Amazon itself. All in broad daylight. All due to the "Amazon effect". Of course that's all unraveling in real-time:



"Shares of Amazon are falling in tandem with a popular retail-tracking exchange-traded fund, and one equity strategist is watching the trend closely as it may signal trouble ahead for the health of the U.S. consumer."



CNBC: Amazon Is One of 200 S&P 500 Companies In A Correction




Fast forward to a brand new false narrative. At the beginning of this reflationary circle jerk we heard that the U.S. economy is strong but the rest of the world is weak. Now we hear that the rest of the world is strong, but the U.S. is weak. Meaning buy Emerging Markets:

August 17th, 2017:


"China's a very important part of this. If you don't believe in China I think it's going to be difficult to believe in EM,"


And which stock is the third largest Emerging Market fund holding and third largest hedge fund holding?

Alibabylon, China's Amazon, what else? Because if a narrative fails in the U.S., just shift the exact same narrative overseas:


And recall that EM stocks and alternative currencies were in manic blowoff mode during the 2011 fiscal cliff:

Back then it was gold:



Now it's Bitcoin, which had a rough night:



Mind the Gap



And careful around that fake news:







The ones that follow







Monday, August 21, 2017

Zero Margin Of Terror

Any questions?


I've been lazy about posting recently since I've run out of ways of describing level '11' asinine behaviour. I will let the charts speak for themselves...

Big cap tech:


Big cap tech with Energy



Banks



Retail



Transports


Europe



Skynet is defending the June low at all costs to preserve the election uptrend:



With fewer and fewer bulltards along the way...

S&P money flow



Fake reflation is not helping



Any questions?