Monday, June 26, 2017

Collapse Is The New "Economics"

The problem with self-interest as a fake and totally hollow ideology is never knowing when it's your own turn to go under the bus... 



22 million people have to lose their health insurance to pay for Forrest Trump's planned tax cut. And he has untold legions of brainwashed morons who support him taking away their own coverage. It's an all time new low for the collapsing Roman empire. Selling daughters comes next:




The narrative that attends collapse in broad daylight is so fucking dumb and facile that you have to feel mildly sorry for the Kardashianized sheeple getting fleeced by it. Eight years into the first non-recovery in U.S. history aka. Corporate Shock Doctrine 2.0, and the simultaneous collapse of EVERY retail store, shopping mall, REIT operator, restaurant, grocery chain, automaker, auto dealer is supposedly due to Amazon. It's a narrative so fucking stupid you have to be a South Park educated retard to believe it. 

It's the end of the *free trade* jobless consumer - the end of the fantasy that millions of people would trade well-paying good jobs for low paying Mcjobs and then borrow themselves into oblivion at 0% to make up the difference. Only then to have interest rates raised at the end of the cycle while blaming the lowest cost retailer for the simultaneous decimation of thousands of retail outlets across the entire country.

Blighted. Gone. 

The jobless consumer is strictly an EconoDunce fabrication to allow the corporate arbitrage of a developed world standard of living vis-a-vis the third world, ending in mass poverty. All while stunned dunces voted against their own interests continually.

At the end of this mega-fiasco the current cadre of ultra-corrupt alpha males in all sectors of leadership will be the ones going under the bus. They won't see it coming, because for them it was always someone else's turn to go under the bus. 

And when stoned zombies rudely awaken to the reality that one internet retailer could not single-handedly blight an entire economy, they will be shocked to learn that they got muppetized all over again by the same Fed dunces as last time. And that collapse is the new *Economics".














Social Mood Is Hanging By A Noose

There are many people who don't believe in the concept of Social Mood driving markets, and they are the sole reason it works - because they are the ones who enjoy getting conned by the same serial psychopaths over and over again...

As Prechter would say, risk is "All one market". Therefore using Bitcoin as a proxy for social mood we see that it's barely hanging by the 50 day, as I write...

Bitstamp, $USD:





And hard to believe but free-money bailouts, printing money, and ponzi borrowing didn't eliminate the risks left over by the financial crisis...




Closely followed trader Art Cashin told CNBC on Monday that the Bank for International Settlements just came out with a "wild card" remark on the market becoming vulnerable to another 2008-type financial crisis.

From the BIS report:
"A gap opened up between surging measures of policy uncertainty and record-low financial market volatility, while a number of indicators pointed to increased tail risks. Pricing anomalies that emerged in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) retreated but did not disappear"

What they purposefully didn't say is that Central Banks engineered this "gap" between volatility and uncertainty:




As risk has risen, complacency has also risen, not just in terms of low volatility but also in terms of capital at risk:





As indicated above, it was a RISK OFF day in the casino. The Nasdaq 100 count remains intact following today's reversal of fortune...




Amazon gave back the $1,000 level and broke its trendline:



Faceplant gapped up to a new all time high and then closed on the lows of the day. 




Tempting fate headline of the day...



In 2008 when oil was at $145, stocks were sinking. It took a while but eventually oil came down with stocks...

In 2014 it happened again. Crude started another steep slide from $107, but at the same time stocks managed to move steadily higher.

And then they imploded, led by Tech:







OPEC Muppets Are Capitulating

The last part of the Trumpflation trade that gamblers have been clinging to, is oil...



Crude oil may see further pain ahead after logging a five-week losing streak and tracking for its worst first-half percentage fall since the late 1990s

Due to the inventory cycle, it's very rare for crude oil to fall in the first half of the year ahead of the peak summer driving season. Right now, the seasonal inventory drawdown period which begins in the Spring is half over, meaning likely another higher low in inventories this year:





To be more specific, crude oil prices peaked in June for the past three years, except this year...

Here we see the contango (futures rollover) cost imposed upon serial OPEC muppets

U.S. Oil ETF




Under the 2016 bottoming scenario, crude oil gamblers have to take their positions down a further 50% from where they were reported this week. Under the 2009 scenario, they have to flip from net long to net short, which is the more likely situation given inventories.

Meaning that record volume selling has just started:






Sunday, June 25, 2017

The Trump Dump

Outside of the casino muppet show, the commodity collapse, and the economic FedPlosion, no surprise, the fake reflation trade got annihilated this past week. Soon even stoned zombies won't be able to ignore the massacre...



Deutsche Bank (DB) downgraded the heavy equipment maker to hold from buy...Analyst Nicole DeBlase wrote in a research note on Friday that a reason for the downgrade was because of questions surrounding President Donald Trump’s ability to get a $1 trillion infrastructure bill passed.

Deja vu of 2015, the fake reflation trade is coming off at an accelerating pace even as tech stocks struggle to make a new high...











Goldman Sachs insiders dumped a long time ago, when they took over the U.S. Treasury

Cashing out their tax free gains and getting into late-cycle position to organize the next Wall Street bailout



Caterpillar



APRIL


Banks, energy forecast to contribute half of overall growth
Their prospects are now being overshadowed by yields and oil




This past week:


Fundstrat's Tom Lee slashed his earnings estimates for the market, but remained bullish on FANG stocks due to their strong growth rates.


This rally is now running on Netflix





The Fed and their EconoDunce acolytes are confident the latest interest rate increase will generate inflation...

I mean, why wouldn't it?















Saturday, June 24, 2017

Dedicated Central Bank Muppets

One minute I held the key
Next the walls were closed on me
And I discovered that my castles stand
Upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand
Never an honest word
That was when I ruled the world

It's one thing to play dunce to serial asset bubbles eight years apart, it's an all new Alzheimer's low to play the dunce for back-to-back asset bubbles...



"Aw Fuck, is this another financial crisis? I thought the bailouts, printed money, and ponzi borrowing fixed everything"







Of course Prechter will be right in the end - just a bunch of serial clowns blowing smoke up each others' asses...



Don't forget last week's cover...





Which led to this week's risk on rally:

"It's too soon to worry about another financial crisis"




More Than Enough Clown Hats To Go Around

Can't we all just agree that only the U.S. is allowed to interfere in other countries' elections? The Democrats certainly seem to be 100% onboard with that concept. Republicans only accept foreign interference when it gets them elected, because it's clearly treasonous to elect Democrats. One thing both sides have in common is that they are both googling the wrong "R" word...




The never-ending Russia morass has both parties assiduously ignoring the Recession freight train coming straight down the tracks. One party wants to pretend that Russian interference in the election is no big deal since it got them elected and it happened on Obama's watch. Unfortunately today, Trump once again just backed over his own apologists by finally admitting that Russia interfered in the election. The election WAS rigged as he asserted, but in his favour, which makes it ok. Likewise FBI Director Comey was a great guy when he got Trump elected but had to be fired without notice when he was continuing to do his job of investigating Russian interference in the election. Because it was just fake news. No wait, it was real news but Obama's fault...

The other party of course believes that making America great again, just means getting rid of Trump, ignoring the fact that eight years of Obama is what got Trump elected in the first place. And when it comes to election interference that's America's last competitive advantage.

But the freight train of reality just keeps on rolling:

What gamblers don't want to see is banks rolling over while Financial advisors are still busy lying to their investors:




Or McDonald's peaking when every other restaurant is rolling over...




Amazon crushing the rest of retail






Starbucks rolling over with coffee



Johnson & Johnson leading the entire market




Google going parabolic and then making a lower high:




Of course overlaying restaurants with retail gets us this:


Doh!




And this:




Don't Worry, The Fed Has Implosion Covered

But it only works when everyone has their head up their own ass, which is never a constraint on their model...

Using their patented driving forward by looking in the rear view mirror economic strategy, the Fed has successfully imploded EVERY bubble and EVERY economic expansion since their inception...




Looking at 33 US recessions since the 1850s, it finds that while many pre-WW2 recessions originated in the financial sector, most post-WW2 recessions were caused by monetary policy tightening and oil shocks...sentiment-driven swings in borrowing and investment led to recessions in both eras


The Fed is over-reacting to transitory commodity echo reflation caused by global coordinated Central Bank monetary expansion during 2016:



Banks are not impressed





"Sentiment-driven swings in borrowing and investment led to recessions in both eras"



"What about internet stock bubbles?"

Those are covered too...



But the key to Fed "success" is to "not see it coming", again, and again, and again...

Nasdaq with log scale Fed rate: