Friday, January 19, 2018

In Donny We Trust

Madoff, BitCasino, DowCasino, Globalization, it's abundantly clear that the Idiocracy doesn't know a Ponzi scheme when they see one. Nevertheless, they are finally going to learn that exploitation is not a "line of business". The only thing reflating is their ignorance and arrogance...

Yesterday was the first Hindenburg Omen since November, more on that below:




Supply Side economics has failed for 35 years straight, as evidenced by record debt, record deficits, record wealth inequality and record low interest rates. But you can't tell any of that to today's all-knowing mega buffoons. They've turned the art of always being wrong, into always being right. That's the power of Fauxtard News. Unfortunately, eventually every Ponzi scheme runs out of fools to follow...

The Idiocracy has only one more lesson to learn about themselves:




This will be the lesson that they never forget...




"Investors looking to get a piece of the latest market surge poured cash into stock funds at the highest pace ever over the past four weeks."








As always with the Idiocracy, what has already happened 'could' take place sometime in the future. Plausible deniability being the opiate of the deeply stoned masses...









Bueller?




As mentioned above, yesterday was the first Hindenburg Omen since early November, which happens to be near the time when the melt-up started...








What does it mean? It means there are fewer and fewer stocks holding up this shit show...




Thursday, January 18, 2018

The Dead End Of Trickle Down Voodoo Economics

Aside from being obese, dementia-ridden, and addicted to junk food, junk culture, and pharmaceuticals, this society is in "excellent" health. Just one wafer thin mint away from implosion...




President Camacho is a *special* purpose con man - he's the con man sent to con all of the other con men in this society. No easy task, to be sure. And yet by all accounts he has done a spectacular job - now evincing record fake over-confidence in stocks, oil prices, real estate, consumer sentiment, economic outlook, corporate profits, global growth, Ponzi cryptos etc. etc. etc...

Don't get me wrong, I like Trump: he's one stop shopping for everything that's wrong with our society - he's narcissistic, ignorant, dementia-ridden, all-knowing, obese yet 'healthy'. And he has the attention span of a coked up flea. Of course, if you ask the people in his own cabinet, they would add that he's a fucking moron and dumb as shit. But what do they know?

We learned just yesterday that thanks to his diet centered around Diet Coke, KFC and McDonald's, Trump is in "excellent" health:

"President Donald Trump's doctor, Dr. Ronny Jackson, characterized the president's health as "excellent," but like the majority of Americans, Trump is overweight obese and he doesn't get enough any exercise."

Faux News was all over it. Meanwhile, yesterday we learned that homebuilder sentiment slipped a tad:


BBG: Homebuilder Sentiment Slips From 18 Year High

"Sentiment among America’s homebuilders eased in January to the second-highest level since 2005, a sign the housing market will continue to make strides this year"

Today we learned that housing starts plunged. but there is no cause for concern:



Of course, in reality (realty?), builder optimism is falling, and demand is also falling, because interest rates are rising:

Housing starts (blue) with short-term rates (red)




"Not this again!!!"





Years ago, Prechter made the point of saying that this cycle will be harder to "trade through", because it's one cycle degree larger than 2008. I didn't believe him, but it turns out of course that he was right.

It had to be longer and larger, in order to con more sheeple. It's one cycle degree larger with respect to time, price, and most importantly, in the magnitude of circus clowns now leading the way...





















"We hope they’re right because the cost of being wrong could prove to be catastrophic"







Wednesday, January 17, 2018

This Won't End, It Will Explode. Violently...

Gamblers seem to have forgotten that "reflation" was outsourced during the past nine years. To make the quarter. Now the Pied Piper of Globalization wants his money back...

Trumpflation is a farce:
Tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy, and interest rate hikes for the entire rest of the world...




Once the short volatility trade is force unwound, this will all end. Violently...

China tech stocks - the global gift that keeps on giving - are hitting new highs today:



And yet, recent "oscillations" have caused U.S. volatility to tighten considerably:




This current reflationary blow-off is like the one last March, but far more extreme. Nevertheless breadth is deteriorating...




Via the Russell / Dow ratio we see that breadth has deteriorated substantially since last March:





The dollar implosion is a dead canary in the coal mine - because the U.S. is ahead of the rest of the world on tightening monetary policy:

In other words, the currency market is calling bullshit on Trumpflation:



Dollar implosion is accelerating the global carry RISK OFF:



The volatility curve is heading back towards backwardation, at which point the vol short begins to unwind in size:



Money flow is also a problem, due to the end-of-cycle handoff from smart money to dumb money:




In summary:

Unfortunately, "reflation" was inconveniently outsourced, along with the middle class, during the past nine years (3 decades?). For fun and profit.

Which happens to be the theme of this blog. So what we have instead, is dullards who can be conned over and over again by the exact same psychopaths.

For fun and profit. 










Remember when Alibabylon imploded the casino back in 2014?






I do...









The Dumbest Society In Human History

By far, the biggest mistake I made over the past nine years was continually underestimating how dumb these fuckers are...

Their presiding beliefs at this lethal juncture are that they successfully borrowed their way out of a debt crisis, and printing money is the secret to effortless wealth:

"According to a recent Reuters report, global debt levels are now at a record high of $233 trillion, up from $142 trillion in 2007 and $87 trillion in 2000""

First off:
We can  now count most of the "pros" as dumb money:


"Bulls last reached this level a year before the infamous Black Monday crash that sent the Dow Jones industrials down nearly 22 percent in a single day"



Secondly, congratulations to Zerohedge for finally figuring out that BitCasino is a Ponzi scheme. It only took a mere -60% loss...


"The question on everyone's mind, did the bubble just burst or do you BTFD?"

To date, a cool ~$300 billion in Ponzi capital destroyed:





Getting back to fake reflation, a handful of gamblers are starting to consider that this just may be the fourth Central Bank engineered headfake since 2008...


"We believe 2018 will prove to be a very important year for investors, not only because of the unprecedented level of euphoria surrounding the U.S. equity market, but more so due to the ongoing global reflation trade that both speculators and investors are piling into."

We really hope global demand growth expectations materialize, otherwise we will once again be out of balance at a time when speculative long positions are at all-time highs. The last time this happened the unwinding of the large long position in 2014 sent oil prices crashing from $107 per barrel to a low of $26 per barrel."

"We really hope that the reason this is happening all over again isn't because this is happening all over again"





Meanwhile, many are expecting commodity demand and economic growth to continue to reflate against a backdrop where central banks are about to either end their easing and/or begin tightening."


"Hope"



We hope they’re right because the cost of being wrong could prove to be catastrophic"







Tuesday, January 16, 2018

The Last Trump Casino Is Closing

Our society is run by trusted con men: Realtors, banksters, and car salesmen...

The enabling lackeys in government and economics are just their industry-owned stooges...




Ten years later:






"Energy is expected to have the best season out of the 11 sectors"







Outlook for ’18 contrasts with GM projecting resilient results











"Once upon a time, when retailers reported same-store or comparable sales, the metric referred only to sales from stores themselves, excluding e-commerce. However, as store-based sales have become challenged, retailers have begun to group e-commerce under the heading of comparable sales

Target, for instance, which is on track for its best quarterly comp growth in at least two years...the actual same-store sales growth from stores was closer to just 1%"