Monday, July 24, 2017

The Big Long: Embracing The Melt-Up Icarus Trade

"Has monetary policy aided and abetted risk-taking? I hope so. That's why we did it" 

"First, private client cash levels have dropped to a record low as a percentage of total assets"

Institutional investors are also holding the lowest levels of cash since the start of the eight-year bull market

What's resulted is the so-called "Icarus trade," which has been characterized by the "melt up" seen in risk assets since the start of 2016.

Ironically, dollar implosion is what's making Emerging Market gamblers bullish, as the collapse of the U.S. is generating fake reflation via currency transmission:

OPEC/NOPEC is meeting today in Russia:

"Before discussing deeper cuts, let's abide by the cuts we've already agreed to"

This week we get to find out why despite crushing the entire retail sector, Amazon still has the lowest profit margins of any retailer. They are the first monopoly in human history to be unprofitable. When the rest of retail fully collapses, they will have high profits and zero customers.

"But there's a downside to flying too close to the proverbial sun — sooner or later, your wings will melt."

In summary:

A "big fall in markets" will be an "autumn, not summer event"

"Despite the gloomy late-2017 forecast from BAML, it's actually a great time to be an equity investor"

"Don't worry about getting out"

"It's A Great Time To Be A Ponzi Schemer"

The real problem we face is that somehow the human race has been dumbed down to the level of a brick...

Stoned zombies are just an Amazon implosion away from discovering that their thought dealers are serial charlatans who've been using history's largest asset bubble to hide their profound corruption and servitude to the corporate perpetual growth model...

"The hidden consensus in Canada is we don’t talk critically about immigration. The taboo against discussing it is very real"

Even though a majority of Canadians tell pollsters “immigration is good for the economy,” Jeram said some don’t realize their per capita financial well-being may be shrinking as corporations bring in immigrants to make up for skill shortages.

“Instead of offering internship programs or on-the-job training, they just import new workers from elsewhere. That leads to a smaller piece of the economic pie for host-society workers.”

It should be no surprise, he said, that corporations advocate more immigrants and temporary foreign workers.

They have no skin in the game in regards to income levels at the low end of the scale. High immigration has no negative impact on them. Only positive.”

Contrary to conventional North American wisdom, Jeram said, “bigger is not necessarily better” for creating equitable financial well-being. “Most wealthy societies are very small.”

Sunday, July 23, 2017

Sheeple Are Not SUPPOSED To See It Coming

Because if they did see it coming, CasinoNomic policy would be neutralized. But don't take my word for it:

"Has monetary policy aided and abetted risk-taking? I hope so. That's why we did it" 
- Anthony Haldane, Bank of England, July 13, 2014

Emerging Markets are exporting deflation to the U.S. while the U.S. is exporting reflationary delusion to the rest of the world. All while Central Banks are trying to rein in the asset bubble they created...

It's an end-of-cycle Faustian Bargain with no happy ending

"Welcome to the Third World"

"Despite cutting the economic growth outlook for the U.S. and U.K., the International Monetary Fund kept its global growth forecast unchanged on expectations the euro zone and Japanese growth would accelerate."

With the IMF overseeing Globalization, no wonder it's failing - they're intractable fucktards...

"Despite cutting the economic growth outlook for the U.S...Japanese growth would accelerate"

"Everyone to the other side of the boat..."

1997 deja vu

Bitcoin with Money Flow


Saturday, July 22, 2017

Exporting Bullshit

The reason there are six thousand religions and only one reality, is so that everyone can have their own version of what won't happen. It was inevitable that the U.S. would elect a President who is 100% smoke and mirrors. Any other failing empire would do the same...

"It's called 'Free Trade'. It costs everything"

I'm all for God, I'm just not into hairless monkeys playing God while taking their Idiocracy to a whole new level, which is what happened this week. This was a litmus test for who would believe the exact opposite of the truth in every direction. It turns out nearly everyone...

This week, Trump went into panic mode and wondered aloud if he could pardon himself for doing nothing wrong. He pounded the table for new casino highs while deriding weak economic data as merely "fake news". He should know, because no one knows fake better than the con-man-in-chief. There is absolutely NOTHING real about the clown, so those who believe (in) him to the end, deserve their BIBLICAL fate.

And yet, even as clown was going into meltdown mode, casino volatility/complacency reached a new record low, across stocks AND Treasury bonds

The Tech sector finally recovered all Y2K losses, compliments of record risk appetite:

The reach for risk spanned every junk asset class known to man: crypto-currencies, micro cap stocks, FANG internet, Chinese internet, Biotech, inverse volatility, IPOs, and Emerging Markets. 

This era's financial WMD short-volatility trade reached a new speculative short interest record, despite the fact that a reversion to just "average" volatility is now enough to implode the casino:

Meanwhile, unwinding of the fake reflation trade accelerated in banks, Energy, and the collapsing dollar

Republicans proved their unflagging dedication to corruption by failing to agree upon how many millions should lose healthcare coverage to fund their tax cut. Some said 22 million was too many, for others it was too few. In the end they couldn't agree, so they left Donny twisting in the wind.

It doesn't really matter since healthcare stocks went parabolic anyways...

Wall Street's last pump and dump further imploded to a new low

OPEC's latest production cut turned out to be a production increase, but really, what's the difference to a stoned Idiocracy?

Therefore gamblers INCREASED their bets on higher oil prices:

But the really fucked up fake narrative of the week, if you can pick just one, was the implosion of the last bastion of retail vis-a-vis the economic black hole of Amazon . All of which of course is really just a cover-up for economic implosion, amid ubiquitous belief in the jobless consumer, who lives with the Sasquatch. Despite having only 5% of total retail sales, we are to believe that Amazon has imploded all department stores, dollar stores, Walmart/Target, all specialty apparel, sports equipment, home furnishings, grocery stores...

And now this week, the last holdout, home improvement and appliances. Because now jobless consumers are buying lumber on the internet...

"Are we sure it's not interest rates and high debt levels causing this problem?"

"Don't worry, just buy Amazon. Stop being an idiot"

"Bypassing the U.S. economy is good for the consumer"

As I said earlier this week, this late stage reflation reminds me of 2011 when Gold was the alternative currency of choice vis-a-vis surging EM currencies. In other words, the fake reflation narrative has been exported from the U.S. where it's collapsing, to the rest of the world...

"There has to be somewhere to hide from fake reflation"

You CAN fool everyone...

"Fool me every time, shame on me"

Friday, July 21, 2017

It Was Only A Matter Of Time. And Bullshit...

I know why the casino was down today...

"Dow component General Electric reported better-than-expected quarterly results, but the stock fell more than 2 percent as sales fell 12 percent year over year."

Got that? A 12% drop in revenue was "better-than-expected"

This is why Wall Street dullards never see it coming - because they play this wholly-contrived game of lowering the bar and then skipping over it while claiming victory.

The con job only stops working at the very end of the cycle and "no one" sees it coming.

Too busy telling themselves how great the quarter was and otherwise extrapolating forward P/E ratios having the veracity of a Magic 8 Ball, out several decades...

"Leading indicator"

S&P earnings (red) with Oil:

"How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Trumptopia"

While Trumptopian casino gamblers were partying like it's 1959, not every country was along for the ride...

But first, financial bloggers are on notice that the croupier-in-chief puts out his own daily casino updates via his syndicated co-hosting of Fox News:

"Six months of nothing later, it's solely fake hope of growth that is making America throw money away at the casino"

He seems especially proud of "Healthcare" - America's patented cartel which extracts monopoly profits by skimming the healthiest patients from the population, at a cost of 200% the OECD average. While providing a lower life expectancy than every other OECD country. Because every full retard knows that "single payer doesn't work", other than working twice as well as the U.S. system, at half the corporate profit...

Back to what I was saying, not every country is enjoying Trumptopia:

As we see, the Japanese Nikkei gives very little notice when it's about to roll over hard, aside from falling relative strength (lower pane):

Whereas the German Dax gives plenty of notice, but it's ignored anyways...

And since China is the only country in the entire world that announces their GDP growth at the BEGINNING of each year - Bernie Madoff style - we have no idea what the second largest economy has centrally planned for their casino...

Finally, since he can't get his own party to pass his 1950s-era legislative agenda, Donny has only one option left to boost the economy which does not require Congressional approval. At least it hasn't for the last decade and a half:

Keynesian bombing of foreigners

Then again, Wall Street figured that out last November

In keeping with today's ludicrous spirit of Dr. Strangelove and How I Learned To Love The Bombing Of Foreigners...

No surprise, South Korea is the top performing market this year

"Thank you ICBM testing"

"Trump says we're going back to the 1950s!!!"