Sunday, June 17, 2012

Pathetic Desperation




Another day, another media circus event for the High Frequency Bureaucrats (HFBs) to fret about.  How many critical 'Greek' events have there been now?  Just off the top of my head there was the first major crisis in 2010 that contributed to the 'Flash Crash' (May 2010) and led to the first bailout.  Then last fall there was the Greek parliamentary confidence vote culminating in Global Central Bank Intervention and ECB monetization (LTRO).  Then in February this year there was the Greek debt restructuring.  In May there was the first (failed) election.  Now This one.  In each of these events the entire world economy and financial system is gripped by fear and paralysis all based on the circumstances of just one country of 11 million people...

Are you kidding me?  That's the clearest proof that we have all become a bunch of desperate buffoons.  And no offense to the Greeks, but if the future of the world financial system rests on their shoulders (or on any other single nation), then we are fucked company, big time.  

One plus One equals Five to the Idiocracy
It was irresponsible, short-sighted behaviour that created this debt crisis in the first place.  So it's safe to assume that the current generation of immature dunces who were complicit in getting us into this mess, lack the courage and the competence to get us out of it.  All of these HFBs running around like little children, trying to stave off reality for yet just one...more...day...are Exhibit A for pathetic desperation.

Last In, First Out
There is one aspect of this ongoing Greek tragedy that has garnered my attention and that is the economic impact it's having on society.  No surprise, the people most impacted by the Greek debt crisis are those who benefited the least from its propagation in the first place.  Now we are seeing people literally abandoning their own children as a way of obtaining additional state resources.  Meanwhile, unemployment is disproportionately affecting young people as older workers cling to their jobs as long as possible.    Youth unemployment in the U.S. is similarly much higher than the average, although lower than some of these European nations.  Juxtapose the youth (un)employment situation, with this week's Barron's article indicating that as expected, the costs of Medicare and Social Security are burgeoning massively at a time when the economy is heading the other direction.  And how about this so-called 'Social Security Trust Fund' equating to $2.7 trillion that was lent to the Federal Government in exchange for "IOUs".  As "The Economist" likes to tell us though, these are just amounts we 'owe ourselves', so we need not consider them in the overall debt equation.  That's all well and good until the day comes when current payroll taxes don't cover payouts and then we go looking for these 'IOU's only to find nothing there !  Oh wait, there it is, it's called - "Iraq", "Afghanistan" and "Tax Cut for the wealthy".  For those in the near future who are wondering where their Social Security went, unfortunately it's gone, and basic math says it's never coming back...Recall when Rick Perry said Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme (which it undeniably is) during the Republican debates, he was roundly derided by the Lamestream Media - too much reality.  Who needs that?

Overall, this fantasy that the young people of today are going to accept the ongoing burdens of supporting the older generations who either spent us into this latent catastrophe or voted for some fucking moron who did the actual spending, is a delusion of the tallest order.

Talk about the point of recognition i.e. when the Boomers find out that the next generation of 'earners' are still living at home playing Xbox...

Things Have to Get A Lot Worse, Before they Can Get Better
As long as Wall Street sees every crisis event as a buying opportunity, then we are only delaying the inevitable point of recognition.  Wall Street clings desperately to the delusion that we can grow our way out of this debt crisis.  Worse yet, at this juncture, 'growth' has come to mean borrowing additional money to inflate GDP, a strategy endorsed by the same pseudo-economists who stood by as we borrowed our way into this fiasco.  None of these developed countries can support their debt levels without borrowing more money via recurring deficits (aka. Ponzi borrowing) or recurring monetizations (aka. printing money to buy Government debt).  Therefore, reality dictates that we need to shed all of this legacy debt via defaults and bankruptcies before the economy can get back to true organic growth.  Unfortunately that means the 1% rentier class are going to have to start facing their share of the financial pain, something they have so far avoided courtesy of Central Bank monetization.  I am not saying that credit deflation will be easy - it will be unimaginably brutal - but it's unavoidable and a necessary prerequisite to re-creating a sustainable economy.  Anything we do between now and then is just fooling around.