Friday, December 7, 2012

Deadly Disconnect

What is the only major global stock market to hit a new one year high this week? German Dax.

Which country is now seeing a three sigma collapse in industrial output?  Germany.

Just the latest overwhelming proof that Central Banks have created a lethal disconnect between fantasy and reality.  Historically the stock market has always led the economy, but now Central Banks have inverted that relationship. If output is falling now with stocks and investor confidence levels high, what will output look like when stocks and confidence catch up and pass the economy, to the downside...



And...
What is the one stock that is large enough and volatile enough to take down this whole market?  Apple
Which stock is about to have a moving average (50/200) cross-over aka. "Death Cross".  Apple
(Apple's last "death cross" was September 22nd, 2008 - 3 days before the market collapsed).  


While everyone is focusing on Apple, the real story is the Nasdaq 100 which includes Apple, Amazon, Google, Intel, Microsoft etc.  Below you see a few days ago it backtested the 50 day moving average and today the 200 day moving average, just as it did last year, right before its breakaway to the downside...