Thursday, March 6, 2014

Lucky 666: Beyond the Log Periodic Bubble

Today is 5 years to the day since the 2009 low in the S&P 500

The S&P is now beyond the log periodic bubble, which in Idiocratic terms means the "coast is clear". Please resume all oblivious risk taking...

In a nutshell, all things fake are going up, and all things real are going down

If you are reading this before-the-collapse. You ARE alone.
https://twitter.com/Not_Jim_Cramer/status/441248126108577792/photo/1



Like All Other Things Fake, Household Wealth Is Going Up, for those who own stocks...


Printing Money To Levitate the Stock Market
A Jedi Mind Trick for the Stoned Masses

Dow with Base Money Supply




The Nikkei Peaks First
Going back to the prior two highs, the Nikkei (red) peaked first...


HALO Crash
In order to have a market crash spontaneously from all time high to low, all market sectors must be perfectly correlated.

Like this...



Chinese Internet Stocks



The Canadian Dollar Left the Party Early
One of these represents the globalized economy. The other represents HFT bots trading on millisecond boundaries against home gamers throwing their last pennies into Tesla.

The Canadian dollar was directionally correct back in 2008, let's see what happens:


"Dude, where's the economy?"
Copper confirming the Canadian dollar

Printing money to levitate stocks while the real economy dwindles with each passing day is a strategy reserved solely for the dumbest fucking society in the history of the planet.

Copper versus Stocks:



Mind the output gap
When the dunces at large realize what this chart here represents, the underwear is going to be mighty stained. This is my bet against EWI. They say this red line will go higher. I say it is going to go a lot lower as it did in 2008. Ever since the Fed announced the taper, yields have been going lower due to deflation, making fools out of practically every bond watcher. Then again, that's only what happened the last two times the Fed reduced liquidity - genius ! Even EWI, doesn't understand deflation anymore: If interest rates rise - markets collapse - the output gap widens massively - nominal interest rates fall - EWI prints a brand new chart - throws some new numbers on it (in the exact opposite direction) - tells us deflation adjusted, they were right (real yields rising) - charges $59/month. Voila. Been there, done that.

U.S. Long Bond Yields (red) v.s. Stocks (black)



Carry Trades Diverging


Some perspective for the bulltards:
We have a pretty good idea for how this movie ends.

Nasdaq 100:




The Smart Money is Leaving the Building

50 DMA TRIN:


And of course Priceline
Beam Me Up Scotty...(I hope someone gets the Shatner reference)



The hallmark of the Idiocracy is to do exactly the same asinine thing over and over again until such time as it implodes. Then start all over again. 

That's all we're doing right now, just waiting for the same dumbfuck policies that generated 2008, to implode with EXTREME DISLOCATION - judging by my blog stats, catching 99.99% of people by surprise.