Friday, June 30, 2017

We, The Sheeple. Will Believe Anything. Hence Nothing

Someone who believes a lie for eight years straight forfeits their right to know when it's ending...

Imploding Economy (retail, jobs, construction, credit, autos)
Oil/Commodity collapse
Y2K level valuations
Extreme speculation (Bitcoin/Ethereum, IPOs, Internet stocks)
Mass complacency
Global Central Banks in fake reflation mode
Deflation trade abandoned (Tech/growth/yield)
Multiple Hindenburg Omens/bifurcated breadth
Clueless Idiocracy


"All of the good news was already in the market"

"No one saw it coming"

One thing the sheeple can count on is that they are being duly monetized by the exact same psychopaths as last time...

Social mood has a date with destiny

Global Jedi Mind Trick For Stunned Dunces

aka. Nowhere to hide (in risk assets)...

This week, the deflation trade (growth, yield) got shellacked while the fake reflation trade was bid as global Central Banksters have decided to follow the Fed's lead and implode the global economy at the end of the cycle...

In other words, the Jedi Mind Trick for stunned dunces has gone global:

There is only one problem, the stocks now getting hammered the hardest are the five largest cap stocks in the entire market:

Which leaves fracking stocks now carrying the market:

Mind you in a deflationary environment, the rotation to reflation doesn't always "work" as expected:

Banks bounced in line with the surge in fake reflation:

Banks have been stress tested so we know they won't break again "in our lifetime" which is measured in dog minutes...

The dollar got annihilated this week, which is another indication that end of cycle reflation is a total fabrication...

The heaviest week of IPOs since the 2015 top ended with a thud, as IPO "Unicorn" Blue Apron closed today below its $10 IPO list price which was 50% below its recently planned IPO price

The underwriters only supported the stock for about :5 minutes, yesterday...

The real action this week was in virtual currencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum). Bitcoin tested its 50 day moving average twice this week and ended the week heading down again...

In addition to the now-global dunced narrative regarding fake reflation, that other denialistic narrative that Amazon is the sole reason for the simultaneous implosion of retail (restaurants, autos etc. etc.) about to go out the window...

In summary, Skynet almost gave up the whole day's rally in the last 3 minutes...

Thanks to second half (quarterly) window dressing BTFD "worked again"

For now...

Speaking of ignored volatility risk, we've seen this movie twice before, albeit on a lower risk scale. One time had a happy ending. One time did not.

Volatility is not "broken" as many would assert, it's just waiting for fracking stocks to end their fake reflation rally...

"Who's selling?"

Thursday, June 29, 2017

The Last Pump And Dump. Is Over...

FUGLY day in the casino portends for potential cascading waterfall collapse...

Tomorrow the algos will do everything possible to protect first half gains, whether that means buying or selling remains to be seen...

In a nutshell, the S&P decisively broke the election uptrend and tested down to the 50 day before sponsoring a major rally back to the prior support line from June 1:

The major damage was in the Nasdaq, growth, Tech, Biotech and "low volatility" yield stocks - aka. the recession 'barbell' trade aka. the dumbbell trade...

The Nasdaq (100) mega cap growth index is decisively through its 50 day:

We've seen this movie before:

Wall Street's latest big tech IPO, Blue Apron, was a massive dud, requiring the underwriters to defend the stock late in the day, priced at $10, closed at $10. This IPO had originally been priced at $15-$17, but just yesterday slashed the price to $10:

Meaning that the IPO window is now closed...

Consumer staples

Oil's short-covering rally ended today. 


The dollar got shellacked, as global gamblers no longer believe Fed bullshit...

Banks/financials gapped up on the Fed's "capital return plan approval", but then gave most of it back

Because we all know how bullish this is...

All of which means that the market has no leadership, so selling volatility insurance in a house fire, may be a bad idea, just yet...

A Sociopathic Society: "More Kool-Aid Please"

A chorus of global Central Banksters who for eight years have encouraged and incentivized over-borrowing and asset speculation now ALL agree that it's time to finally raise interest rates from the historically low levels produced by the LAST crash. Why? Because it's time for the next crash...

Periodic economic resets are healthy for a variety of reasons - particularly to avoid excesses from accumulating to the point where the resulting crash creates a prolonged depression. But for another reason which is to ensure that the sociopaths who are inevitably in leadership are held accountable for the bad ideas they concoct over the course of the maturing cycle. Throughout the past 50 years, each recession has revealed scandals, ponzi schemes, and malfeasance resulting in jail time for the crooks involved. The late 1980s Savings and Loan crisis alone resulted in over 1,000 convictions. In Y2K, there was Enron, Global Crossing, Worldcom etc. Whereas the 2008 global financial crisis, which had orders of magnitude more impact than any past financial meltdown resulted in just one minor (U.S.) conviction (for some reason this article omits Madoff). Therefore, it should come as no surprise, that this cycle has led to the dumbest fucking ideas in human history now being deployed to unnaturally extend the cycle. At ALL costs. Meaning that first off, none of the sociopaths see this coming, and secondly the amount of underlying economic damage incurred in the meantime is unprecedented.

Just this week, we learned that amid record debt levels, the Central Banksters, falling prey to history's largest example of groupthink have all decided to tighten at the exact same time:

"Global debt levels have climbed $500 billion in the past year to a record $217 trillion, a new study shows, just as major central banks prepare to end years of super-cheap credit policies"

World markets were jarred this week by a chorus of central bankers warning about overpriced assets, excessive consumer borrowing and the need to begin the process of normalizing world interest rates from the extraordinarily low levels introduced to offset the fallout of the 2009 credit crash.

Years of cheap central bank cash has delivered a sugar rush to world equity markets, pushing them to successive record highs

One of the most authoritative trackers of global capital flows, the IIF report highlighted "rollover" risks, especially in emerging markets that have borrowed in hard currencies such as euros and dollars.

But the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) this week urged policymakers to disregard the potential market turbulence, including high debt levels, and press ahead with rate rises.

Cue, sociopathic bullshit:

It’s all about yield-seeking capital flows, my friends.   Tell us what interest rate is the tipping point which thwarts that behavior and we will tell you when the stock and credit markets top and flop

It's not about yield-seeking capital flows. It's about the marginal jobless consumer's ability to service their debts amid rising interest rates. In other words, you don't have to see a top coming, you just have to see morons being morons way too long and by the end believing they are getting away with it.

When in actual fact, there is no way out.

"A chorus of central bankers warning about overpriced assets, excessive consumer borrowing and the need to begin the process of normalizing world interest rates"

2 + 2 = Wave 5


Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Celebrating Reflation Implosion Week

Tomorrow, Trump will explain how he plans to finish off OPEC. Energy stock and commodity gamblers have been covering all shorts ahead of his speech. Because one never really does know what he might say, especially his own staff...

In other words, this short-covering rally should be the last nail in the coffin for the reflation trade. And as we see, growth stocks are ready to implode at the same time:

Energy week is not to be confused with Infrastucture week which imploded infrastructure stocks three weeks ago...

Donald Trump will tout surging U.S. exports of oil and natural gas during a week of events aimed at highlighting the country’s growing energy dominance. The president also plans to emphasize that after decades of relying on foreign energy supplies, the U.S. is on the brink of becoming a net exporter of oil, gas, coal and other energy resources.

"Drill, drill, drill"


The entire commodity complex has been covering this week:

If you can't see this rally, you need a new microscope:

Healthcare week has been a bust for bulltards who expected Republicons to easily overturn Obamacare. Ironically it was defeated by the Genghis Khan wing of the party that wanted even more cuts to the program.

In other words the last sector making new highs, is not making new highs anymore... 

No one with an attention span less than :15 minutes has seen this movie before...

Fracking burial 2.0

Coal Burial 2008 2.0

And retail is leading the market this week, so we know what that means:

Hard landing for dedicated muppets:


Banks 'very much stronger'; another financial crisis not likely 'in our lifetime'

Ms. Yellen is convinced that the actions taken by the Congress and the banking regulators have created a financial system in this country that can withstand significant stress without breaking. If one looks at the banking ratios, Ms. Yellen is making a good case.

However, if one assesses the impact of the new rules and regulations on this country, it is clear that the Fed has placed the United States at greater risk of a major collapse than at any time in the past 110 years – going back to the Panic of 1907.

The new regulatory environment demands that banks fail in the event of a crisis. It prevents any and all bank regulatory agencies from aiding a weakening bank. It is actually against the law for the government to bail out a bank now due to new regulations

Just remember, deflation is "transitory", the Fed is raising rates to ensure that it remains so...