Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Rich Man's Panic 2017

Don't take my word for it...




The Dow's all time high was two weeks ago today:





"It is no secret that the economy is in decent shape. Monthly employment growth has averaged 184,000 this year, and the unemployment rate is down to 4.3 percent." 


Deja Vu




"Meanwhile, S&P 500 earnings growth for the second quarter is set to come in at 10.2 percent, according to Factset, while revenue growth looks to be above 5 percent."

The chart Wall Street never wants us to see - aggregate, non-engineered revenue across all S&P 500 companies. Calculated by taking revenue per share * S&P divisor. Here shown CPI adjusted:



Last chance to buy recession stocks.

Don't take my word for it:







"the most important factor is the direction of interest rates. Utilities stocks are particularly sensitive to rate shifts given their high yields relative to the rest of the market; he believes as interest rates will likely take a leg lower, utilities will likely fare well going forward."


It didn't turn out that way the last three times, but I'm sure it will be different this time:




Or not...



Backtest 50 day. Check.

Diminishing marginal returns from volatility compression:





There's only one way out of this...

PANIC