Thursday, September 28, 2017

Denial Is Natural Self-Selection

Efficient and democratic...
Hairless monkeys decide for themselves if they want to trust pathological circus clowns engaged in the studied art of knowing everything by knowing nothing...

The global everything super bubble is already imploding in autos, retail, art work, commercial real estate, frackers, Apple/iPhone, FANG stocks, and of course crypto currencies, the mega-bubble of this era:

Move over Bitcoin, here is Titcoin:
"Titcoin (Ticker Symbol: TIT) is a type of digital currency called a cryptocurrency that uses pornography on a decentralized peer-to-peer network to manage the issuance of new currency units while simultaneously processing transactions"



There are over a thousand crypto-currencies globally. Full list, here. These are the biggest ones:



By far the largest by market cap, Bitcoin, is about to split again into multiple different currencies, because miners can't agree upon which protocols to use going forward:





Unfortunately, there is only so much money to go around. The weak link in ALL of these new currencies is that they are primarily used for speculative purposes. Most are not legal tender anywhere. Which means that they do not have a stable relationship vis-a-vis the real economy. Therefore, their value is not determined by an exchange with merchants who are willing to hold the currency as a store of value, their price is determined via exchange with the next willing speculator looking to unload at a higher price. 

And that is not sustainable:




Relative performance:




Meanwhile, Trump tax euphoria round 20 is beginning to wane just as it has every other time...

The vaunted "Gundlach trade" (higher bond yields):




Unfortunately for the crowded Gundlackers, the buzz saw known as the Fed is quickly approaching with Rolloff #3. But remember, no one knows what will happen when the balance sheet shrinks for the third time:




Due to Tax Cut Mania, gamblers crowded into the smallest and riskiest stocks on the premise that they will benefit the most from the imaginary tax cut:






Also waning is OPEC euphoria from last week's circle jerk:







Big Cap Tech has had a good retracement, not confirming the S&P's latest new high. Percent bullish is dropping despite the recent bounce:




China is back to devaluing their currency in size, as the entire EM currency complex rolls over...




Which leaves just volatility compression holding up the entire global casino...