Monday, December 11, 2017

Low Volatility: The Bubble To End All Bubbles

Betting that historically low volatility will last forever amid record speculation and leverage is the biggest fool's game ever. Which is what a bet on the Dow Casino now represents - a bet on a continuing Black Swan event...



The bubble that garners all of the attention of course is BitCasino. CBOE futures began trading last night and the contract moved into steep contango, halted twice limit up. 




Nevertheless, what BitCasino gamblers lack in the way of knowledge of Blockchain technology, they make up for in their lack of knowledge of the futures market. Being cash settled means that the futures market trades wholly separate from the Bitcoin exchanges. Meaning that there is no direct means of keeping the two markets in synch. To be sure, at contract expiration, market makers will arbitrage the two markets to the spot Bitcoin price. However, between expirations, large speculators will conduct their bets on the futures market wholly independent of the Bitcoin exchanges: A side bet between two large parties having no effect on the underlying market. The idea of a tsunami of new capital entering the Bitcoin market was a fantasy.

Which is likely why the Bitcoin price peaked last week, as did trading volume:




The link between Bitcoin and the larger casino is via semiconductors:







Y2K Deja Vu
Overstock.com is morphing from off-stock retailer to Bitcoin venture capital play:



In other words, the one bubble left to implode is the one bubble that will end this entire shit show:




Mind the gaps:





China Tech is backtesting the 50 day. The global gift that keeps on giving...



Overnight delivery. Guaranteed.