Wednesday, January 17, 2018

This Won't End, It Will Explode. Violently...

Gamblers seem to have forgotten that "reflation" was outsourced during the past nine years. To make the quarter. Now the Pied Piper of Globalization wants his money back...

Trumpflation is a farce:
Tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy, and interest rate hikes for the entire rest of the world...




Once the short volatility trade is force unwound, this will all end. Violently...

China tech stocks - the global gift that keeps on giving - are hitting new highs today:



And yet, recent "oscillations" have caused U.S. volatility to tighten considerably:




This current reflationary blow-off is like the one last March, but far more extreme. Nevertheless breadth is deteriorating...




Via the Russell / Dow ratio we see that breadth has deteriorated substantially since last March:





The dollar implosion is a dead canary in the coal mine - because the U.S. is ahead of the rest of the world on tightening monetary policy:

In other words, the currency market is calling bullshit on Trumpflation:



Dollar implosion is accelerating the global carry RISK OFF:



The volatility curve is heading back towards backwardation, at which point the vol short begins to unwind in size:



Money flow is also a problem, due to the end-of-cycle handoff from smart money to dumb money:




In summary:

Unfortunately, "reflation" was inconveniently outsourced, along with the middle class, during the past nine years (3 decades?). For fun and profit.

Which happens to be the theme of this blog. So what we have instead, is dullards who can be conned over and over again by the exact same psychopaths.

For fun and profit. 










Remember when Alibabylon imploded the casino back in 2014?






I do...